2012 Electoral Map Prediction: Who will win?

Since two weeks ago, there have been slight changes, most helping Mitt Romney, but is it enough to make him the 45th President of the United States?

There are three states that I cannot comfortably project. Flipping a coin in determining these states is probably just as good of a way to determine them. One of them by itself will determine the election, so the other two do not really matter. New Hampshire went from "lean Romney" to toss up although there probably is a slight Romney edge. Same for Obama in Iowa, although this has become toss up because of the four major newspaper endorsements in the state all went to Romney.

Ohio: Almost everything indicates a slight Obama advantage, although there has been significant progress by the GOP to counter the Early Voting/Absentee Ballot advantage Democrats had back in 2008. The "260,000" vote margin Obama won by back in '08 has now gone down to within 3,000 vote swing either way. Republicans generally cast more votes on Election Day than Democrats so this would indicate an Romney advantage. Obama's ground game is better though (as we witnessed its juggernaut status in 2008) so this could still allow him to squeak out a victory. Ohio will be the closest it has been compared to the last three elections. It will be tight and whoever wins Ohio wins the White House.

The other advantage that has helped Romney is some blue states. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota are all within two points based on some polling. Give the slight advantage to Obama in these four states because of the historical advantage Democrats have. It is possible that Romney could win one to four of these states (and Ohio wouldn't matter, although that would probably go to Romney then as well). Ideology in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania has changed since the last presidential election and the GOP have an excellent ground game in Wisconsin as scene in 2012 Recall Election of Governor Scott Walker et al.

North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida are most likely going to Romney. I have them as pink because they are considered toss-up, but it is relatively safe to place them in the Romney camp. Nevada is the same for Obama.

In Colorado, more Republicans voted early and the state now has more registered Republicans than Democrats. Both were the opposite back in 2008. While Colorado is considered a toss-up, this data strongly suggests a Romney victory in three of the four corner states.

Essentially what I am concluding is after spending hundreds, if not thousands of hours analyzing this election, the only prediction I can make is that it will not be an Obama landslide. Do not be surprised if Romney has a landslide tomorrow and do not be surprised if Obama or Romney squeak by. Obama either barely holds on or Romney is the 45th President of the United States.

-Christian N.

State of the Presidential Election, Two weeks to go.

Before the first debate, President Obama had enough Electoral Votes to win the Presidency, even if he lost all the toss up states. Since the first debate, the Mitt Romney portrayed by the media has not been scene and voters now see him in a new light. Mitt Romney now has stronger favorability ratings than President Obama. Countless polls show people stating Mitt Romney can handle the economy better than President Obama. People watching the debates saw caring individual, who was looking presidential, and on top of his game. Not some rich guy out of touch with Americans looking to help his buddies save money by shipping jobs overseas.

If the election were held today, Obama would narrowly win:

The "Toss Up" states of Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida will go Mitt Romney on election night. New Hampshire and Colorado are seeing movement toward Mitt Romney and I would place these states on his side as well.

Iowa and Nevada are showing strong early voting/absentee ballots toward Obama and while there is time for Mitt Romney to make up ground (Rasmussen has Iowa at 48-48) President Obama has the advantage in these two states.

President Obama now has one firewall left in order to win a second term, Ohio. Almost all polls now have this state within the margin of error, so it's hard to say which way it will go, but as of right now, President Obama has a razor thin advantage only because he was leading there for awhile.

While no Republican has ever won the Presidency without Ohio, ironically Romney doesn't need it (but it would be his easiest way to win). 

This firewall can be breeched three ways.

1) Win in Iowa and Nevada. As I've stated earlier here, this appears to be a slight uphill battle.

2) Win Ohio. Self-explanitory.

3) Steal Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or Michigan.

In terms of option 3, Mitt Romney is the best candidate for Republicans to win Pennsylvania since 1988. Pennsylvanians like a big government, moderate republican. Tom Ridge, Tom Corbett, and Arlen Specter are the type of people that can win in a state where 50% of the people are registered Democrats.

Pennsylvania now also has other factors making it in play. Many blue-collar families from Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and the Northeast (Scranton region) are registered democrats, but are furious at this administration. One factor is because of the new resource of natural gas being drilled from the Marcellus Shale. Some polls show Mitt Romney winning in Pennsylvania and another moderate, Tom Smith (maybe Pennsylvania's like politicians named Tom) could be an upset choice for the GOP to win a Senate seat (over Senator Bob Casey, Jr.).

What determines this state is whether the counties surrounding Philadelphia (Chester, Bucks, Delaware,  and Montgomery), Pittsburgh , and in the Northeast show up to vote. If they do, this counters the the urban vote, and will be a victory for Romney. If they stay home (which would be a half vote for Romney compared to 2008) Obama still wins the state.

Wisconsin. Since Governor Scott Walker survived the recall and Paul Ryan is the Vice Presidential nominee, this state is in play. It hasn't gone to the GOP since 1984 so Obama still has the advantage here, but it will be close.

Minnesota and Michigan. They are the least likely to go to Romney, but if this is a landslide statement election, they will. I have scene internal polling where Obama is leading in Minnesota by two points, with still enough undecided voters to sway it to Romney.

Even the liberal states of Connecticut and Oregon (which will go to Obama) don't even have a double digit lead for the President.

So if the election were held on October 23, President Obama would barely win. There are still two weeks to go and the momentum is clearly with Governor Romney. This will be a tight election.

So tight as a matter of fact, a region in Maine or Omaha could decide this. Nebraska and Maine do not award all of their Electoral Votes to the statewide winner. They award them via congressional district winners with two votes going to the statewide winner. [Note: Electoral votes are given to states via amount of Congressional Districts + the two Senators they have]. 

Before 2008 in Nebraska and Maine, the statewide winner won all congressional districts. In 2008, Barack Obama won Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (Omaha) awarding him one electoral vote from the state. Since 2010, the district has been gerrymandered so it's unlikely Obama carries the district again. 

Maine's 2nd congressional district (mostly the northern region of the state) is very tight. In fact, Romney may win it. So if it is a 269-269 type scenario (where Ohio and NH go to Obama and Iowa and Nevada go to Romney or the map shown in my previous post), BUT Obama takes Omaha or Romney wins part of Maine, this election could be determined by one congressional district.

-Christian N.

A Tie In The Electoral College: 269 Obama - 269 Romney

In a time of great divide in the United States, could we afford another 2000 Florida-like situation? Could it be possible that 2012 will be more controversial than 2000? While it is only July and we are 110+ days outside of the election (practically an eternity for America) there is the possibility that the next President of the United States will be chosen by the House of Representatives as neither President Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will earn the magic number of 270 delegates to secure the election. 

The 2012 election will most likely be chosen by 12 "swing" states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Outside of those states, President Obama currently has the advantage meaning Mitt Romney will need about 2/3 of the remaining delegates if he is to win it all. So if Ohio or Florida is called early for Obama  on election night, he is virtually guaranteed a second term.

Looking further, some of these 12 states are close in the polls, but have not been "swinging" in recent Presidential Elections. Pennsylvania has not gone to a Republican since 1988. While Mitt Romney is the type of Republican who could win the Keystone State and the GOP may have the best chance since 1988, a semi-popular Democrat (Sen. Bob Casey) is up for reelection against an unknown candidate Tom Smith. So if Obama can't ride the coattails of Senator Casey and win in my home state, I'm popping open the champagne bottle before the Mountain Time Zone is finished voting.

Wisconsin falls into the same category. While it was close in 2000 and 2004, the Democratic nominee has claimed the state in the past six Presidential elections. In order for the 269/269 scenario to work, this state needs to flip to Romney. If Governor Scott Walker can survive the recall and a recent poll shows Romney ahead 47% - 44%, the Badger State can turn red.

Obama appears to be semi-comfortably ahead in New Hampshire and is slightly ahead in Michigan according to most polls collected by Real Clear Politics. Iowa, the state that literally was the launchpad for Obama against Hillary Clinton in the primary (and supported him over McCain in November) will be tight on election night. Rasmussen Reports gives Romney the slight edge in Iowa.

Nevada went to Bush twice, but to Obama in 2008. The Nevada Republican Party is literally in a civil war between Ron Paul supporters and the state establishment. Because of this turmoil, I see Obama taking this state again. New Mexico and Colorado have become more liberal this past decade (although Gov. Susana Martinez (R-NM) needs to be the blueprint for the Republican Party to attract more Hispanic voters). Since Sen. Bennett (D-CO) survived the Tea Party wave of 2010, Obama should be able to claim two of the four corner states. 

North Carolina, the state hosting the Democratic National Convention. The host site can be kind a few months after the streamers and balloons leave, but I expect this state to be a disaster for the DNC. People are skipping the convention and the recent divide between the national party/local voters on some key issues will make the Tar Heels wear a Wolfpack Red in November.

Virginia. With the exception of Wisconsin, this could be the most controversial call in the map especially if North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida go to Romney because Virginia would be ignoring the regional/demographic trend [Note: If Wisconsin and Virginia are wrong on the map above, Mitt Romney earns 272 delegates].

Before Obama won the state in 2008, the last time Virginia danced with the left in a Presidential Election was all the way back in 1964 with President Johnson. The Real Clear Politics Average has Obama with a 3 point advantage over Romney (Rasmussen has the state tied, poll within the RCP link) and Virginia likes playing "bi-polar" politics. In other words: Virginia likes to vote for a Governor and President from a different party. 

In 2000, Virginia voted for President Bush, yet voted Mark Warner (D) as Governor in 2002. 2004 went to Bush again, but felt blue shortly thereafter as it voted for Tim Kaine (D) in 2006. Two years later, the state voted for President Obama and in 2010, (if you're following the trend) they overwhelmingly voted for the the Republican candidate, Bob McDonnell [Note: Virginia Governors are limited to one term]. So expect this bi-polar trend to continue giving this state to Obama in November.

If all that plays out, the Congressional races just became way more important because neither President Obama nor Mitt Romney acquire the needed 270 delegates. If that happens, the House Chamber votes (not individually, but by state) and whichever candidate gets 26 states, gets the Presidency. This could be extremely controversial because Obama could easily win Pennsylvania on election day, yet lose that state on the House vote because there are more Republicans than Democrats representing Pennsylvania. A similar event happened in the 1824 Presidential Election. This is unlikely to happen in 2012, but it is a possibility. 

-Christian N.

Map was created at: http://270towin.com

Wildlife Hypocrisy In The Obama Administration

The Obama Administration are hypocrites when it comes to wildlife. Readers of my website will recently recall my article about the future of the Scimitar Horned Oryx, Addax, and Dama Gazelle. These animals total over 60,000 in Texas, yet are extinct in the wild in Africa. Since the order took effect for these three species, ranchers have told me stories about how animals that are injured (such as a broken leg) CANNOT BE TOUCHED by anyone since no federal permits have been issued and the animals are suffering. These three beautiful animals may not exist beyond this decade should the United States Fish and Wildlife Order remain in effect.

Now there is more troubling news as it effects our national symbol, the Bald Eagle. Some may recall, the Obama Administration recently allowed two Bald Eagles to be hunted by a Native American tribe in Wyoming. Now it appears the United States Wish and Wildlife Service has declared war on the Bald Eagles. In a new statement, the Wish and Wildlife Service will now allow the killing of Bald Eagles in the name of "green energy" for the country.

So President Barack Obama and his Administration wants to "defend" three animals in Texas as they order these species cannot be harmed or touched without a federal permit, yet total over 60,000. Then the same people will allow the killing of our national symbol, the Bald Eagle, which totals less than 10,000 nesting pairs and tries to loosen hunting restrictions on this animal. The Obama Administration are hypocrites when it comes to wildlife and will do anything to support their agenda and punish the groups who are against it.

-Christian

Sources:

• http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/1024px-Weisskopf_Seeadler_haliaeetus_leucocephalus_8_amk-e1337014991527.jpeg
• http://freebeacon.com/obamas-war-on-bald-eagles/
• http://www.fieldandstream.com/blogs/field-notes/2012/03/wyoming-native-american-tribe-granted-permission-kill-two-bald-eagles
• http://www.baldeagleinfo.com/eagle/future.html

Pennsylvania Primary 4/24/12

All Percents have not reported yet, but so far:

Former Democrat, Tom Smith is chosen as the GOP contender to challenge Senator Bob Casey. 

Congressman Tim Holden (D-17) is getting crushed right now in the primary. He voted against ObamaCare. 

Union backed Congressman Mark Critz has defeated Congressman Altimire who voted against ObamaCare. The two districts were combined following Pennsylvania losing one Congressional Seat from the 2010 Census.

Senator and GOP Majority Leader, Dominic Pileggi, was losing early in the primary, but has since retaken the lead.

State Representative in the 167th District, Duane Milne, appears to have defeated his challenger in the primary.


Other statewide races: John Maher appears to have defeated Frank A. Pinto for Auditor General.


Kathleen Kane narrowly leads Patrick Murphy in the Democrat Party for Attorney General. 

Looking ahead into November, The Congressional Districts 3-7 are looking good for the GOP (based on voter turnout) as they are leading against the amount of votes their challengers received on the Democrat Ballot.

Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-8) should be concerned as his competitor has received more votes than he has.

Rep. Lou Barletta (R-11) is leading in primary votes compared to the other party.

In other interesting news: There are less votes for President Obama in the primary than for the candidates for Attorney General in the Democrat Party. Also the GOP leading in presidential primary votes compared to the Obama.