State of the Presidential Election, Two weeks to go.

Before the first debate, President Obama had enough Electoral Votes to win the Presidency, even if he lost all the toss up states. Since the first debate, the Mitt Romney portrayed by the media has not been scene and voters now see him in a new light. Mitt Romney now has stronger favorability ratings than President Obama. Countless polls show people stating Mitt Romney can handle the economy better than President Obama. People watching the debates saw caring individual, who was looking presidential, and on top of his game. Not some rich guy out of touch with Americans looking to help his buddies save money by shipping jobs overseas.

If the election were held today, Obama would narrowly win:

The "Toss Up" states of Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida will go Mitt Romney on election night. New Hampshire and Colorado are seeing movement toward Mitt Romney and I would place these states on his side as well.

Iowa and Nevada are showing strong early voting/absentee ballots toward Obama and while there is time for Mitt Romney to make up ground (Rasmussen has Iowa at 48-48) President Obama has the advantage in these two states.

President Obama now has one firewall left in order to win a second term, Ohio. Almost all polls now have this state within the margin of error, so it's hard to say which way it will go, but as of right now, President Obama has a razor thin advantage only because he was leading there for awhile.

While no Republican has ever won the Presidency without Ohio, ironically Romney doesn't need it (but it would be his easiest way to win). 

This firewall can be breeched three ways.

1) Win in Iowa and Nevada. As I've stated earlier here, this appears to be a slight uphill battle.

2) Win Ohio. Self-explanitory.

3) Steal Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or Michigan.

In terms of option 3, Mitt Romney is the best candidate for Republicans to win Pennsylvania since 1988. Pennsylvanians like a big government, moderate republican. Tom Ridge, Tom Corbett, and Arlen Specter are the type of people that can win in a state where 50% of the people are registered Democrats.

Pennsylvania now also has other factors making it in play. Many blue-collar families from Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and the Northeast (Scranton region) are registered democrats, but are furious at this administration. One factor is because of the new resource of natural gas being drilled from the Marcellus Shale. Some polls show Mitt Romney winning in Pennsylvania and another moderate, Tom Smith (maybe Pennsylvania's like politicians named Tom) could be an upset choice for the GOP to win a Senate seat (over Senator Bob Casey, Jr.).

What determines this state is whether the counties surrounding Philadelphia (Chester, Bucks, Delaware,  and Montgomery), Pittsburgh , and in the Northeast show up to vote. If they do, this counters the the urban vote, and will be a victory for Romney. If they stay home (which would be a half vote for Romney compared to 2008) Obama still wins the state.

Wisconsin. Since Governor Scott Walker survived the recall and Paul Ryan is the Vice Presidential nominee, this state is in play. It hasn't gone to the GOP since 1984 so Obama still has the advantage here, but it will be close.

Minnesota and Michigan. They are the least likely to go to Romney, but if this is a landslide statement election, they will. I have scene internal polling where Obama is leading in Minnesota by two points, with still enough undecided voters to sway it to Romney.

Even the liberal states of Connecticut and Oregon (which will go to Obama) don't even have a double digit lead for the President.

So if the election were held on October 23, President Obama would barely win. There are still two weeks to go and the momentum is clearly with Governor Romney. This will be a tight election.

So tight as a matter of fact, a region in Maine or Omaha could decide this. Nebraska and Maine do not award all of their Electoral Votes to the statewide winner. They award them via congressional district winners with two votes going to the statewide winner. [Note: Electoral votes are given to states via amount of Congressional Districts + the two Senators they have]. 

Before 2008 in Nebraska and Maine, the statewide winner won all congressional districts. In 2008, Barack Obama won Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (Omaha) awarding him one electoral vote from the state. Since 2010, the district has been gerrymandered so it's unlikely Obama carries the district again. 

Maine's 2nd congressional district (mostly the northern region of the state) is very tight. In fact, Romney may win it. So if it is a 269-269 type scenario (where Ohio and NH go to Obama and Iowa and Nevada go to Romney or the map shown in my previous post), BUT Obama takes Omaha or Romney wins part of Maine, this election could be determined by one congressional district.

-Christian N.

2010 Election Predictions

The 2010 elections seems to be one that will go down in history as one of the most significant, if not the most significant election in our lifetime. Up to 100 seats in the House of Representatives are in play, virtually all currently held by a democrat. I don't think Republicans will win all of them, however, at this point it's virtually a given that in late January 2011, the Speaker of the House will be Ohio Congressman John Boehner.

In the senate, it's a much more difficult predication. With the once "filibuster proof" majority Democrats had, (until Senator Brown from Massachusetts had a say in that) it still seemed nearly impossible Republicans could regain the Senate. It now appears they could reclaim the senate, and possibly gain 10 or more seats.

My Prediction:


In the House of Representatives, Republicans will gain 60-85 seats giving them roughly a 20-45 seat majority. John Boehner will be Speaker of the House. Since all seats in the house are in play (every two years they are) I won't make a prediction on who win's in a particular district, but, I do have some seats I will be watching on Tuesday evening, later in the article.

In the Senate, it's too close to call who will have the majority. The control will be within the range of 47-53 which means I predict at least 6 pickups for Republicans, and possibly up to 12, however, I have no idea who will be in charge of the Senate in late January. Democrats have the advantage in controlling the Senate, but, the GOP could control it too.

What Seats to Watch For On Tuesday:

In the Senate, here are the big races I'll be watching. Note: (*) indicate incumbents, (~) indicates seat held by that candidates party.

1.  Reid (D)* vs Angle (R) Nevada

Talk about a power shakeup. It would show the true power of the Tea Party Movement if the Tea Party endorsed, Sharron Angle, defeats the number 1 Democrat in the Senate. Also watch for voter fraud by SEIU and the voting machines. As I reported via twitter, SEIU controls the voter machines in Nevada.

2. Toomey (R) vs Sestak (D)~ PA,  Murray (D)* vs Rossi (R) WA, Manchin (D)~ vs Raese WV

The reason why all three of these races are tied for second place is because, if the GOP wants to have a chance to control the Senate, it needs to win all three of them. If they lose WV or PA early into the evening, then the Senate will probably be in Democratic control. If the GOP win these three, the next important race would be Boxer (D)* vs Fiorina (R) in California for the control of the Senate.

Best of the Rest: Miller (R)~ vs McAdams (D) vs Murkowski (Write In)*

On Wednesday, this seat will be won by a Republican, the question remains who? The fiscally conservative, and primary victorious Joe Miller, or the moderate Lisa Murkowski, who daddy gave the seat to her, and it appears she just can't give it up yet.

Honorable Mentions: Florida (another person couldn't stand to lose his control. Say hello to new Senator Rubio, he'll be a name to remember), Connecticut (probably will be won by Democrats), and Delaware (again, probably a Democratic victory).

House of Representatives:

1. Grijalva (D)* vs Mcclung (R) Arizona 7

If the long time progressive Congressman Raul Grijalva loses his seat to the young Ruth McClung, that would be interesting.

2. Frank (D)* vs Bielat (R) Massachusetts 4

It's going to be a really long night for Democrats, if the congressman who ruined the economy, yet, can blame it on everyone else loses his liberal district. Republicans may win over 100 seats if they win this one.

3. Perlmutter (D)* vs Frazier (R) Colorado 7

The fairly new district was originally held by a Republican, but has be in control by the Democrats since. This district surrounds Denver and goes East into Adams County. The district seems to mostly be however, Ryan Frazier is holding a slight lead. If Ryan wins, remember that name. He could be the "Marco Rubio" of the House.

Best of the Rest: I'll just quote Geroge F. Will's Article:

-South Carolina Rep. John Spratt [SC-5], second-ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, is seeking a 15th term. Missouri Rep. Ike Skelton [D-MO 4], chairman of Armed Services, is seeking an 18th term. Texas Rep. Chet Edwards [TX-17], 13th-ranking Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, is seeking an 11th term. Minnesota Rep. James Oberstar [D-MN 8], chairman of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, is seeking a 19th term. In 2008, they won by 25, 32, 7 and 36 percentage points, respectively. In 2010, all are vulnerable, so voters in four districts could subtract 118 years of seniority.

-For 55 years, Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.) [15th District], 84, has occupied the seat his father held for 22 years before him. The son received 71 percent in 2008. His district includes Ann Arbor, which requires conservatives to leave town at sundown. (Just kidding. Sort of.) He beat his 2008 Republican opponent by 46 points. Dingell probably will win while setting the 2010 record for the largest shrinkage of a 2008 majority.

-Rep. Gene Taylor (D-Miss.) [4th District], who got 75 percent in 2008, voted against Obamacare and is the only Democrat who has signed the discharge petition that would allow the House to vote on repealing the law. He lost his house to Hurricane Katrina and may lose his quest for a 12th term.

-Rep. John Salazar (D-Colo.) [3rd District], whose younger brother was a Colorado senator before becoming interior secretary, won in 2008 by 22 points. In Congress, Salazar has opposed cap-and-trade and TARP and supports a one-year extension of all the Bush tax cuts. The National Rifle Association has endorsed him. Nevertheless, he may lose.

Note: Information within [brackets] was added by me.

Wild Card:

Don't forget, most politics is local, and with the 2010 Census, most, if not all districts will change by 2012, so local is just as important as national. The one "local" election I'll be watching will be the Gubernatorial election in Colorado.

Tom Tancredo, entered the race as a third party candidate (American Constitutional Party) claiming Republican Dan Maes, and John Hickenlooper were far too liberal. Tancredo almost guaranteed a Democratic victory because he started by polling with 13% voting, most being taken away from Maes. Now, Tancredo is in second with 42% of the vote, 5 points behind Hickenlooper at 47% (Maes at 5%) via Rasmussen.

Can another fiscally conservative candidate pull it off, or will it be another NY-23 from 2009?

Final Word:


These elections will send a clear message to Washington. We are tired of lies, bribes, massive debt, and false Hope and Change. I'm exactly 1 month shy of being eligible to vote this cycle, however, this is probably the most important mid-term election ever. Voter fraud is out of control, and people seem desperate to stay in power. Our country is at stake, and Republicans taking over will not solve the problem. We have to hold every politician accountable, if we are to restore the Republic.

Christian N.

Follow me on Twitter to get live results on the elections on Tuesday, and other political coverage.

Sources:

1. http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/7671/votingbooth.jpg
2. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/colorado/election_2010_colorado_governor
3. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/29/AR2010102905734.html

Note: Article edited on 10/31 at 11:30 pm to include other elections from George F Will's article

Elections in '09: The Impact They Could Have

It's November, and that means it is time to head out to the polls and vote. Most of them are local elections, some are mayoral, but there are 3 races the nation or national news seem to be focusing their attention on. In a few hours, people in New Jersey and Virginia will vote for their next Governor, and people in the 23rd district of New York will vote for their representative in a special election.

While this year certainly is not as big of an election year as compared to 2008 or 2010. Some have claimed, such as Sebastian Smith of the AFP, in an article claiming these elections are a referendum on Barack Obama's presidency in the last year. I do agree that these three elections can show how people view the Obama Presidency, but I think it is a better example of a "litmus test" of what we can see in the 2010 elections.

Mr. Smith also claims that the "democrats [are] scrambling to starve off embarrassing defeats." I don't think they are "scrambling", but they do have reasons to be concerned. In 1993, one year after President Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush, it seemed as if the "Reagan Revolution" was on life support. New Jersey and Virginia would both go to republican candidates in their gubernatorial elections. A year later republicans would take control of both houses of congress by winning 62 seats in the House and Senate. However, in 2001, both gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia would go democratic and the GOP would gain seats in 2002, which they would have a majority in the House and Senate. A repeat of '94 in 2010 may not happen, but it is certainly a possibility because of the circumstances in these '09 elections.

Historically, Virginia has been a conservative state but has turned at least "purple" if not blue in the last decade. In recent polls, republican candidate Bob McDonnell leads double digits over the democratic candidate Creigh Deeds. Real Clear Politics has this race +13 points for McDonnell. President Obama won this state by 6 percentage points over McCain. It seems that the GOP will win this race, regaining a state that they have recently lost.

In New Jersey, the gubernatorial race is much closer and is essentially a "toss up." New Jersey, which in recent history has been very democratic, has not voted for a republican presidential candidate since George HW Bush in 1988. Chris Christie the republican candidate is challenging incumbent democrat Governor Jon Corzine. According to Real Clear Politics, Christie leads Corzine by 1 point. In a state that President Obama won by 16% percentage points, which he has been campaigning for Corzine in the last few days, shows a possible shift of political affiliation from democrats to republicans in a liberal state.

The last race, which is arguably the craziest of all three, is the 23rd district of New York. In a special election to fill a vacant seat in Congress, the Republican Party chose moderate candidate Dede Scozzafava while the Democratic Party chose Bill Owens. Historically, a republican has held this seat in Congress since the Civil War. However, President Obama did beat McCain in this district in 2008. Unhappy with some of the viewpoints of Scozzafava, Doug Hoffman decided to run as a Conservative in a district where he is not a resident. (Note: It is legal to run in any district of the state you live in.) A self proclaimed "9/12er", a group created by conservative Glenn Beck, which members are mostly on the right side of the political spectrum, who fear they are losing their rights from the Government since September 11, 2001. Hoffman is clearly on the far right, as seen in the previous link such as his opinion of the bailouts, stimulus package, healthcare, etc.

Over the last couple of weeks, the candidates were somewhat tied, however recently Ms. Scozzafava would drop into 3rd place. Over the weekend, Ms. Scozzafava would quit her campaign and endorse democratic candidate Bill Owens. This suddenly becoming a two-candidate race. New polls (since Ms. Scozzafava ended her campaign) have Hoffman in a 17 point lead, and have Owens in a slight lead. The winner of this election certainly will not be know until late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Even though this race is probably the least noticed of the 3, it could have the biggest impact. If the democrats win, they could use the historical impact of this election, to promote their ideas and strengthen their party. If the Conservative wins, who essentially overthrew the Republican, it could create a "Civil War" in the Republican Party as Robert George mentions on whether their future candidates should be conservative such as Mr. Hoffman, or more moderate such as John McCain.

All 3 elections could be a "litmus test" on President Obama's job approval in his first year of the Presidency and be a sneak peak for elections in 2010. If the GOP wins all three races (assuming Hoffman joins the Republican Party), this will probably show that they will win elections in 2010 and possibly a majority in Congress. If the Democrats win 2 out of the three (assuming and very likely that Virginia is a guaranteed victory for the GOP) they will certainly maintain a healthy majority in Congress after 2010. I could be wrong, and whatever happens on Tuesday could very well be the exact opposite in 2010 elections.

I am almost certain though that if the GOP does not make a choice on what principles will guide them, and the political "fighting" that happens between moderates and conservatives on whether they should be "the big tent party" trying to gain moderate democrats and independents along with conservatives. Compared to the "small tent party" which would be a party mainly for conservatives and some moderates. At first it seems the big tent theory is the better option, but according to Gallup, conservatives are the largest political group, moderates second, and liberal in third. Whichever plan the party goes with, they need stop being "the opposition" to anything President Obama tries to do, and actually create their own agenda, or they will lose many elections in the future.

Note: Article written for a class assignment.

The Largest Political group is....

A new Gallup Poll shows America's true political viewpoints. The Republican Party can have a lot to learn from this too. The Poll says 40% of Americans consider themselves Conservative, making them the LARGEST POLITICAL IDEOLOGICAL GROUP.

If the Republican Party nominated a true conservative, they would have the presidential elections practically won. All they would need to gain would be 1/3 of moderates which is very realistic. They need to stop trying to lean "more moderate" like nominating someone like Senator John McCAIN. I also think this is why Liberals and Democrats are scared of someone like Sarah Palin. She is someone who is conservative, and can be respected by many Americans. They see her as a threat to their own ideology and control in America, and want her defeated before she can even run in 2012. 

If the GOP nominates a Conservative in 2012, they will only have to campaign for 10% of moderates, and they will be guaranteed to take the White House from President Obama.

CREN