Vietnam: It's Time for the U.S. to Improve Relations

This month, tensions between Vietnam and China are rising due to a territorial dispute in the resource rich South China Sea. Recently, China placed an oil rig within 120 nautical miles off the coast of Vietnam. To make matters worse, China rammed a Vietnamese vessel as it was patrolling near the newly placed rig and fired their water cannons at the vessel as well (see the video below). Protests have since sparked in cities across Vietnam over the incident. Over 15 foreign owned factories were sent ablaze in response to China's oil rig.



China and Vietnam are communist governments with both of their economies recently attempting to become more capitalistic. Yet, they are not allies. It is not always the case where communist governments are allied to each other. During the Cold War, Yugoslavia was not an ally of the Soviet of the Union.

For China, it unfortunately clear as to why it is picking on its weaker neighbor. With China's recent military buildup and expansion of their Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), they are now optimist about carrying a "big stick" and becoming the a regional superpower (and soon to be a world superpower) while attempting to gather resources within their realm. Other nations near the South China Sea such as the Philippines and Taiwan (along with Japan and South Korea further away) all have treaties with the United States with many regarding to defense of the nation's territory. Therefore, China can afford to become aggressive with Vietnam without any significant repercussions, and if it were to somehow go to the United Nation's Security Council, China could veto any action there.

It's been 39 years since the fall of Saigon and while the stigma remains for both countries over the Vietnam War, the United States and Vietnam can mutually benefit with an alliance. As the United States shifts focus toward Asia, Vietnam owns Cam Ranh Bay, a deep-water bay and perhaps the most strategically important port in Southeast Asia. The last major navy to use the port was Russia, which was over a decade ago. It's been nearly 20 years since the United States and Vietnam began normalizing relations since the war and then Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited Vietnam in 2010 with Leon Panetta visiting Cam Ranh Bay in the summer of 2012.

Cam Ranh Bay is the optimal place for the United States to have military forces particularly the navy, in the hopes of containing China's aggressive expansion. While Vietnamese-U.S. relations have been slowly improving, it is time to speed up the process. Each country needs to realize they can help the other both economically and militarily. If Vietnam leased Cam Ranh Bay, both sides can finally move on from the Vietnam War and in return, the United States can protect Vietnamese sovereignty.

What the 2012 Election Results Mean

First off, I want to say I was wrong about the election. I thought it would be closer than it actually was. By mid afternoon on election I knew it looked dim for Republicans. I miscalculated the impact of the last four years on voters. Having said that, the 2012 election does provide some very interesting into future elections.

With a poor economy, record, and skyrocketing deficits under President Obama the last four years, Republicans had an excellent formula to pick up the Senate and the White House. They got neither. The 2012 results may well indicate the United States received a political realignment in 2008.

     Political Scientists like to categorize elections into four categories.

     1) Maintaining election. Partisan ideology and loyalty remains the same and rewards the “in-party” or stronger political party. This is the most common election and it maintains the status quo.

     2) Deviating Election. This is a temporary shift where political ideology and loyalty generally remains the same, however some people defect to punish a bad performance/appeal to the weaker party. Dwight Eisenhower and Bill Clinton are examples of a temporary deviation. There has never been a three-term deviation in American history.

     3) Realigning election. The stronger party takes back control from the deviation. Political ideology, partisanship, and loyalty return to the norm. John F. Kennedy in 1960 and George W. Bush in 2000 are examples of a reinstatement.

     

     4) Realigning election. Partisan loyalty and ideology changes, they long lasting impact, and happen about once a generation, usually triggered around a national crisis. The two main realignments are FDR’s “Progressive Era” in 1932 and Reagan’s “Conservative Era” in 1980.

     2008 appears to have been a realignment election, perhaps triggered the economic crisis. According to Walter Burnham, realignments are almost predictable. They tend to occur at 38-year intervals. 1818, 1856, 1894, 1932 were all realignments with 1970 being another one (but hurt because of a plurality of issues in the early 70s, not fully integrated until Reagan in 1980). 38 years after 1970, is 2008.

     There are also 5 characteristics indicating a realignment election.  

1) Change in Regional Base of Party Support.

     Whigs were in both in the North and South before the civil war. After the war, the GOP was nonexistent in south. In the New Deal Era, the GOP lost a ton of support in North. Under the Reagan Era, Democrats lost the South.

2)  Change in Social Groups Base Support.

     People will go opposite directions. Pro Slavery Whigs became democrats/Anti-secession Democrats became Republican. Under Reagan, conservative Democrats became Republican.

3)  Mobilization of New Voters.

4) New Issues Divide Electorate.

     The economy generally is the reason for this one.

5) Voters Change Patterns and Thoughts About Parties.

     Party ID change is an example.

     In 2008/2012 we do appear to see a regional change in support. Once conservative states such as Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, (and to a lesser extent: Indiana) are now considered toss-ups. The toss-up states such as Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, have easily gone blue in the last two elections. The once “hopeful” turn red states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, appear to not even be in play at least at the Presidential level. The once dominant conservative states of Arizona and Texas will be in play for Democrats around 2020 (more on that year later). Texas voter ID is nearly tied between Republicans and Democrats.

     We also appear to see a change in the social groups. Hispanics generally have always gone liberal, but Bush nearly earned half of their support in 2004. Now they have gone heavily to the Democrats. Even Cuban-Americans in Florida, known to go about 70/30 Republican, went to Obama on election night in 2012. African Americans, single women, and young Americans all heavily went blue as well.

     Speaking of mobilization of new voters. Obama captured the young Americans solidly in 2008 and 2012. According to V.O. Key, who is one of the most respected political science experts, claimed if you get voters to vote the same way in consecutive elections, you will most likely have them for life. 2016 will indicate several things, including if Republicans lost a whole generation of voters. 

     New issue dividing the electorate: Even the least politically involved people could name a few today that vastly divide this country.

     The fifth part, Obama may not have yet, especially because of 2010, but it does appear he has the other four.

     So based on this evidence, 2008 was either a deviation or a realigning election. No deviation has ever gone three terms, so 2016 will determine 2008’s fate. The other reason why 2008 was a realigning election is because of the 2012 Senate elections. If Republicans cannot win in Montana, North Dakota, (lesser extent: Missouri and Indiana), they are in trouble. The political conditions and seats up for election should have given both houses to the Republicans.

     In 2012, Republicans did weaker in some categories despite the last terrible four years. More Mormons went to Bush in 2004 than Romney in 2012. Mitt barely squeaked by the popular vote of John McCain, yet both came nowhere close to Bush’s number in 2004, which still would have lost to Obama in both elections. In Colorado, more Democrats voted on election night than Republicans, an accomplishment that didn’t even occur in 2008.

     The saving grace to the GOP may have been 2010. If not were the massive victories across the country, they may have lost the House of Representatives in 2012. With redistricting, the House of Representatives is mainly secure until the 2020 Census. Republicans now have eight years to get their act in order before they truly become the “weaker” party in realignment. The party, however, is in disarray. ORCA was a massive failure, Speaker John Boehner cannot even keep his own party in-line, and he is kicking prominent people, such as Representatives Tim Huelskamp (Kansas-1), Justin Amash (Michigan-3), Walter Jones (North Carolina-3) and David Schweikert (Arizona-5 but the district will be relabeled the 6^th in 2013) off of key committee assignments. Amash claims leadership did not even contact him before the news became public about him losing his committee position. Some Republican lawmakers even faced establishment favored candidates in the 2012 primary.

     

     In terms of the Fiscal Cliff, Republicans cannot win and will blink first. If they make no deal, they will get the blame. If there is a compromise and taxes do go up (even by a small percentage), they will lose the base. If they let Obama get everything he wants and it fails or by some miracle works, they will get the blame if it goes bad and certainly will not get the credit if the situation improves. If not careful, the GOP could go the way of the Whigs, but that may be a stretch at this point.

     The 2016 field looks promising for Republicans such as Senators Marco Rubio and Rand Paul. Remember though, the GOP establishment vehemently opposed these candidates in the primary of 2010. With maybe the exceptions of Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, which GOP “establishment” candidate looks promising for the election? The bench is made up of non-established candidates. Which may be good for the GOP because the establishment choice has been 1-5 since 1976.  The only year they won was in 1988, which was probably because of the Reagan Realignment. If Hillary Clinton is the nominee in 2016, I do not see how Republicans can win.

     If 2008 was a realigning election, 2016 will go to the Democrats. If it was a deviation, the GOP will win the White House. Republicans need to get their act together and move quickly to attract new voters, but stay on principle. If the GOP cannot, they will be weak after 2020. They will not have the chance to be as strong as they were on the national level in the 1980s, mid 1990s thru early 2000s, until 2046.

Reflecting on Three Articles I wrote

When I first created my blog, I wanted to share my opinion on known issues, and not known issues that I felt America would have to fix in order to advance as a society. I also wanted to post articles I have written for newspapers so everyone could have the chance to read them. At first, at most I would get would be 10 viewers a day. I never thought it would become this popular (several hundred views a day now) and I hope it becomes more popular in the following months and years to come. I'm sorry I haven't posted many articles as I would like, however, I have been extremely busy with my Senior year in High School and applying to Colleges. I started writing before about politics before High School, and can't believe it has all ready been four years.

     The first article I want to talk about is the prediction on the 2010 elections. I don't want to brag, but, it appears I pretty much nailed the Senate and House predications, even closer than some media and polling predictions. For some odd reason, I get lucky in political predictions. My other "correct guesses" was I thought John Edwards would be the VP nominee in '04, and I guessed Sarah Palin would be the VP nominee in April of 2008.

While the elections are historic, and sent a message (to some, we learned how stubborn the other politicians are) to Washington and America about the legitimacy of Tea Party. This should be a "pat on the back" not a time for a celebration because we still have massive challenges that threaten our nation both foreign and domestic. In 2012 we still have a ton of work to do to replace the established politicians.

     Second article, was the first "professional" (third post) I ever wrote on this blog about the Drug War in Mexico and The War on Our Boarder. It's sad to see the Federal Government claim the southern boarder is the most secure it has ever been and to see the measures they are taken at our Airports, yet, leaving our "Southern Door" wide open and sue a state trying to fix the problem. It appears Texas is finally trying to do something because today Fox News published an article showing how Texas is using special forces to combat the Drug Cartels, calling this A WAR (the boarder is more dangerous than Iraq right now) and even called this America's Third War.

A year and half ago, I was labeled a "fear monger"and that was I saying "crazy stuff" that somehow this Drug War would spill into the United States. Now, signs in Arizona warning of Drug Cartels violence 80 MILES NORTH OF THE BOARDER. If the Federal Government doesn't send in the military into Mexico to fight the Cartels, maybe Boarder States will have to send in their national guard to protect its citizens. It sounds crazy now, and probably isn't legal, however, the current path has to change before it's a huge issue, and as it sounded crazy a year ago the Drug War would be on our side of the boarder, I bet this time next year, Boarder States will be discussing all options to stop the Drug War in Mexico and the Illegal aliens entering the country.

     The last article, is another recent one about the United States Monetizing Its Debt. This is arguably the greatest threat to our Country. With a massive debt (approximately 96% of our GDP), The Federal Reserve as pumped trillions of dollars (not backed by Gold or anything) to "stimulate" the economy and now is printing money to pay for our debt. Inflation was soon to come, and it all ready is. The UN warns food prices could rise 20% next year, and that Wheat and Corn have risen over 40%. Corn prices will have huge impacts on Gas Prices (Ethanol) and Meat/Dairy products (What the animals eat) let alone Corn itself for people to buy. Dairy prices have also risen by about 30% and a Wal-Mart secret poll indicates inflation is all ready here, and will continue to be a problem.

In addition to all of that, The Dollar will probably lose 20% or more of its value over the next few years.

What all of this means, is rough times are ahead. We have to be prepared, suffer the consequences, and make sure future generations (mine, and my children's generation) can at least prosper and learn to never make the same Progressive mistakes again. It's a great time of year with Thanksgiving and Christmas coming soon. Spend time with your family, and say a prayer for our country, because we need all the help we can get.

Christian

Sources:

1. http://www.harryscafedewheels.com.au/Files/Images/franchise/us_flag.jpg
2. http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/11/18/americas-war-texas-mounts-counterinsurgency-effort/
3. http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/300410
4. http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=20521

Where has Common Sense gone in America?

This month, public school's "zero tolerance" policy fails once again. On February 1, 2010, twelve year old Queens student, Alexa Gonzalez, was arrested for...doodling her name on her desk in erasable marker. Alexa wrote, "I love my friends Abby and Faith," and added the phrases "Lex was here. 2/1/10" with a smiley face. 


As the New York Daily News Reports: "Instead of simply cleaning off the doodles after class, Alexa landed in some adult-sized trouble for using her lime-green magic marker. She was led out of school handcuffed behind her back and was escorted to the precinct across the street, where she was detained for several hours."

Alexa, who had a stellar attendance record said, "I just thought I'd get a detention. I thought maybe I would have to clean [the desk]."

Alexa would be sentenced to eight hours of community service, a book report, and an essay on what she learned from the experience. She was suspended from school, but the suspension has been dropped.

School officials would say that her Spanish teacher reported Alexa to an assistant principal, who the assistant principle claims she was required to place a call to cops.

It is no wonder why our public schools are a mess. If they cannot handle a simple incident such as this, how are they supposed to teach? All they would have to do is tell her to clean the desk, and maybe some other janitorial work, not sending her off to jail.

Sources:

1.  http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/education/2010/02/05/2010-02-05_cuffed_for_doodling_on_a_desk.html#ixzz0fOdrTWPd
2. http://www.woodtv.com/dpps/news/strange/12-year-old-arrested-for-marking-desk-_3226204
3. http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/education/2010/02/06/2010-02-06_cuffed_student_wont_draw_suspension.html

What a Difference a Year Makes

What a difference a year makes. On this day last year, Barack Obama was sworn into Office as the 44th President of the United States, with an approval rating above 70%. He took the nation by storm, and most thought he would bring Hope and Change to the country. This time, a year later, his approval ratings are around/below 50% with an index of -11 approval. It appears Obama realizes that campaigning is a ton easier that running a nation. The rest of the article will look at Obama's policies and actions, along with the impact they had to the country. First we will look at the positives.

The most positive impact President Obama had during his first term, which he deserves full credit for, is the handling of the Somali-Pirate situation with Americans. With the depolyment of US Navy Ships and SEALs, the Maersk Alabama's Captain held hostage by the pirates in a lifeboat was saved by snipers who eliminated the pirates. No one was killed/injured besides the pirates, and this is President Obama's finest moment in his first year as President.

His second finest moment, was his speech after accepting the Nobel Peace Prize. While there may be some questions on why he got it in his first year as President, because he had to be nominated for the Prize, just days after being President, he handled it very well with his speech. He realized what the award meant to so many people around the World, and even said he wasn't sure if he deserved it. He also donated all the money that came with the prize to charity. The speech can be found here.

Another good moment was when President Obama signed the Reagan Centennial Bill into law.

Now on to the major negatives of his administration during the past year including January 19, 2010. This could get long.

Lets start off to a promise he has broken for every bill he has signed; waiting 5 days before he signed the bill into law so the American people would have time to view the bill, and give their opinion on it. Sadly, he has not kept that promise for any bill, which hurts our nation, and his credibility.

What started under the last few months under the Bush Administration, was quickly expanded by President Obama, Government Takeovers of companies. The Financial Industry, is now largely under control of our Government, 2 out of 3 major car companies are now controlled by the government, and now President Obama is about to nationalize the student lending program for kids to pay their way through college. When the government gets involved, things head for the worst in the company. Not ONE company/organization controlled by the United States, is profitable, including the postal service.

With Government bailouts, came large spending, here is a list of some of the bills that have been passed under Obama:

• TARP: $700 Billion
• Federal Stimulus Package: $1.2 Trillion
• Federal Reserve Bailout: $6.4 Trillion

In his first year alone, President Obama has spent more than every other President of the United States, COMBINED. All these programs have to show for, is increase in taxes, controlling wages, and higher unemployment rates. Over 10% of this nation is unemployed with an additional 8% underemployed, essentially making 18% (or almost 1 out of 5 people) in the workforce looking for a job.

Cash for Clunkers spent over $3 Billion Dollars, and most auto dealers HAVE NOT received the money for the car trade ins, and supplies have run short because salvageable parts that could have been taken from the cars were destroyed.

Our current national debt is above 12 Trillion Dollars.

Clearly when it comes to the economy and the free market, Obama has failed miserably.

During the campaign, Obama was considered a man who was most prepared to improve our foreign relations, and wouldn't be the "Cowboy" President Bush was. Obama's first year with foreign relations includes:

• First Interview as President with a Muslim News Channel
• Appeases to Middle East with a Speech in Cairo
• RETURNS a gift from Great Britain GIVEN TO US AFTER 9/11
• Gives Prime Minister Gordon Brown, DVD's THAT DO NOT WORK in Europe.
• Gives the Queen of England an I-Pod with his favorite songs, and pictures of himself.

If that is not an embarrassment to this nation, and our greatest ally, nothing is. Failure

Another area in the foreign relations department Obama has struggled in is Copenhagen...twice. First was the Olympics for Chicago, where he goes there and gives the "I, I, I, Me, Me, Me, Please Pick Chicago For 2016" Speech, that caused Chicago to be eliminated in the first round of voting. The second time was when he went there for the Global Warming Conference, which all they were able to do, is agree to meet at some point in the future...some crisis they dealt with. Which leads to another part of his agenda, Cap & Trade (or Cap and Tax). Just pending approval from the Senate is a bill that would take massive amounts of money from companies because of the amount of CO2 they release into the environment. Lets hope that fails reaching his desk.

The next area is Homeland Security. President Bush kept us safe since 9/11. Obama failed within his first year. Ft. Hood Shooting was committed by a Muslim Terrorist who happened to be in the US Military. We have been very lucky to not have a larger attack hit us yet, such as the failed attempt to blow up a passenger jet airliner over Detroit on Christmas. DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano think it's the job of the department to respond to a terrorist attack essentially as a clean up crew, not to PREVENT terrorist attacks from happening.

The other area Obama has threatened Liberty is his appointment of "czars" that "control" a certain area without the approval of Congress, and take orders directly from Obama. That sounds like tyranny. There are at least 32 Czars in his administration, more than Russia ever had. Full List Here.

Another part of the economy the Obama Administration wants is our healthcare. The health care industry is 1/6 of our economy. A bill over 1,500 pages long, no transparency, back-room deals, and a plan that will destroy our health care system. While health care could improve in this country, Obama wants to destroy it. Lets pray no healthcare bill ever reaches his desk.

The last area we will criticize President Obama is his handling on the War in Afghanistan. It took over 94 days for Obama to come to a decision, when innocent men and women were killed during his decision time. He met with the commanding General of the fight (who Obama appointed) for 20 minutes while in Europe. The decision he makes is political. Send in a a descent number of troops for a surge, but not too many to make your anti-war supporters furious. He did not meet the minimum the General requested. Frankly you fight to win wars, not make political decisions based on them. Either go "all in" or fold is a better decision than this President Obama.

After one year, what do Americans think of these changes? A great "litmus test" is to look at elections. 4 major elections happened during his first year:

• Virginia
• New Jersey Governor
• New York 23rd District
• Massachusetts Senate Seat

On November 3, Republicans won by 20 points for the Governor, and won the Lieutenant-Governor and Attorney General positions. The first time one party took all 3 seats in Virginia's history.

In New Jersey, a heavily democratic state, Republican candidate Chris Christie beat the incumbent Jon Corzine for the governorship.

In the New York 23rd district, independent candidate Doug Hoffman (Tea-Party/Conservative) narrowly lost to the democrat Bill Owens. Hoffman crushed the liberal-republican candidate and almost beat the 2 party system. Look for him to run again in 2010.

In Massachusetts, this election takes the bacon. Massachusetts is the most liberal state in the union, and had a special election to fill the seat of the most liberal Senator Ted Kennedy. The Republican candidate, Scott Brown, defeated the democrat Martha Coakley by 5 percentage points 52-47. If this doesn't scare democrats, nothing will.

It appears Obama's policies are not that favorable to the American people, and Obama has lost a ton of support. If he does not change in 2010, expect landslide victories for the GOP in November, IF the party nominates fiscally responsible candidates who will control spending, taxes, and reduce government control on the free market. If that is the party's message, they will probably take a majority in the House, and be a small minority in the Senate.

CREN

Senator Specter Signs The Healthcare Pledge

Senator Specter has become the first Democrat to sign Let Freedom Ring's Healthcare Pledge. He joins 117 other members of Congress that have signed the pledge. This is certainly an interesting move by Arlen Specter, showing boldness and courage to sign this pledge. Colin Hanna said, Senator Specter "has never been anyone's rubber stamp." Hopefully other democrats will now sign the pledge and actually show Americans they will READ a bill (especially one as significant as healthcare reform) before voting on it.

Congressman Sestak, said at a town hall in Philadelphia, he would sign the pledge too if the pledge did not have its second part stating that the bill be available to the American People on the internet for at least 72 hours before the bill is voted on. Congressman Lincoln Davis' (D-TN) staff said he would sign the pledge too if more democrats have signed it. Congressman Ed Towns (D-NY) told a constituent he would sign the pledge but has not at this time. Representative Allyson Schwartz (D-PA) told Megyn Kelley of Fox News in an interview that the pledge was on her desk, but she has not signed it as well.

What is really sad is, out of 535 seats in Congress, 118 have agreed to read the healthcare bill before they will vote on it. This shows how out of touch Washington is with the American People. Most simply do not understand that they work for us, WE DO NOT WORK FOR THEM, and until Congress realizes this, they will just remain out of touch with America and we will not be the Republic we have always been.


For more information on Specter signing the pledge, read Washington Times Article here.

CREN

CREN is interviewed by Greta Van Susteren

I was interviewed by Greta on July 22, 2009 at about 10:30 at night to talk about Pledge To Read and other topics.
More Info Here

Full Article Here

Share your comments below.

CREN

Will Joe Biden be right? Obama to be "tested"

Remember when Joe Biden said  "Mark my words, It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did to John Kennedy. The world is looking. We're about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator, President of the United States of America. And he's going to need help...to stand with him. Because it's not going to be apparent initially,The world is looking. We're about ; it's not going to be apparent that we're right."

Are the North Koreans going to be the one's who test them and their so called "satellite" launch? I'm curious to see what Obama actually does with this. Will he be tough with them as he claimed he would be at the G-20 summit in London? I think he's acting "tough" right now, and will do nothing, as this incident will most likely be forgotten in a few weeks. 

A lot of factors could happen in this launch, it could blow up on the launch pad like the last time the Taepodong 2 Missile was tested, it could be successful for the North Koreans  and possibly land near Hawaii or Alaska. While I personally doubt this missile has a WMD on it, what about future launch's from the North Korea or Iran (who has interest in this test) will that be "the real deal?"

This is why Obama should not "follow through" on his promise to not weaponize space, and continue nuclear proliferation talks.  At the G-20 he pretty much said lets get rid of all our WMD's. If we can't really talk to Iran, Russia, North Korea, China how the heck are we going to convince them to empty out their arsenal? We also have an unstable Pakistan with them as well. I hope the day never happens but if we are attacked by a WMD from a nation, not a terrorist attack, how will we respond?

This is why Obama must continue on the Missile Defense System ("Stars Wars" defense) initially started by President Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan was right on this issue, lets not try to ban WMD's, lets shoot them out of the sky.

So is North Korea's test, a test on our president, and our foreign policy, and to see if they can finally have a missile that can carry out a WMD attack against South Korea, Japan, Hawaii/Alaska or will Iran use it against Israel?

Either way, this is a test, and maybe Joe Biden was right.