The first caucus in the United States takes place on
February 1 in Iowa followed by the New Hampshire primary on February 9. After
that, the parties make the system a little more confusing as Democrats have
their Nevada caucus while Republicans host their South Carolina Caucus on
February 20 while a few days later the parties do the reverse as the Republican
Nevada Caucasus and the Democratic South Carolina primary takes place on
February 27. The candidates win delegates based of a proportional system in the
early states and the candidate with a majority of the pledged delegates
officially becomes the party’s nominee for president at the party convention in
the late summer.
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada are the four
states the system have allowed to go early in the primaries because of their
geographical location, size in population (rather small compared to most states
in an attempt to provide stronger voices than in highly populated states), and
different demographics, values, and economies. Tuesday March 1 is regarded as
“Super Tuesday” because it is the earliest day the Democrat and Republican
parties allow other states to choose to host their primary/caucus and they do
not have to proportionally align delegates meaning a candidate who wins a
plurality of the vote within the state can take all of the delegates for the
convention. Most of the time, the frontrunner of the party essentially secures
the nomination on the evening of Super Tuesday by winning enough delegates. Mitt Romney in 2012 and John McCain in 2008
essentially secured the Republican nomination for President because of Super
Tuesday. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama went until the end of the primaries
in June 2008 before Obama secured enough delegates to win the party’s nomination.
15 primaries/caucuses occur on Super Tuesday—meaning 19
states/territories will vote in the primaries by the end of March 1—with 11
more contests taking place by March 8. Because there are so many states in such
a short period of time occurring all across the country, only the best-financed
and well-polled candidates can win the nomination.
Hence for Republicans, while there are still over ten
candidates running for President, only three appear to have a realistic chance
of winning: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio because of their
fundraising and polling. While Jeb Bush has raised over $133 million for his
campaign and via Super Pacs, he can stay in the race until the end of the
primaries, but his poll numbers suggest he will not do well.
For Democrats, three candidates remain in the race, however,
it will come down to two individuals: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Now
we will analyze who has the best chance to win the party’s nomination and how
each legitimate contender can win it.
Republicans
1) Donald Trump
Yes, the unthinkable one-year ago is most likely happening.
Trump is dominating in the polls doing well in the early states of Iowa and
South Carolina, while crushing in New Hampshire. He has virtually spent no many on advertisements
electing to let his mouth garner media attention for free advertising.
Republican voters feel betrayed by their party for not challenging Obama’s
policies domestically (such as healthcare and the national debt) and abroad
from Iran and ISIL. There are still two realistic paths for Trump to lose the
nomination, however, he is the clear front-runner.
The first way Trump loses the nomination is if the
Republican Party presidential candidate field drops from 12 to 2 candidates. A
majority of the party still supports candidates not named Donald Trump and they
would most likely unify to vote for the Trump alternative candidate. If Marco
Rubio and Jeb Bush remain in the race past the first four states and run on
Super Tuesday, Trump will most likely be the nominee as the “Establishment
vote” is split between the opposition candidates.
The second one is a theory I have stated for months. A
significant portion of Trump’s base is blue-collar and union affiliated
Democrat registered voters. Yes, much of his support comes outside of the
Republican Party. The New York Times has an excellent summary on his supporter
base here. At least 27 states/territories have a closed primary meaning voters can
only vote in the primary they are registered with. So many Democrats may be
shocked when they go to vote than they cannot actually support Donald Trump in
the primary. So while poll numbers may be accurate, this won’t necessarily
reflect his actual support in primaries. Of the first 19 primaries/caucuses, 7
are closed primaries.
2) Ted Cruz
The Texas Senator is now leading in polls in Iowa and will
probably win the first contest. Recent history shows the Republican winner in
Iowa does not usually win the nomination. The anti-establishment Republican base that
does not like Donald Trump is supporting Ted Cruz. His base is essentially the
Evangelical and Tea Party vote the campaign has dubbed grassroots
conservatism. As the establishment/more moderate wing of the party remains
divided on Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or John Kasich, this has
allowed Ted Cruz to be comfortable in second place and lead in Iowa.
His best path to victory is winning Iowa, skipping New
Hampshire, and then using momentum/same campaign style to win South Carolina.
Since 1980 (with the exception of 2012), the winner of the South Carolina
Republican primary has won the nomination of the party for president. If Cruz
wins South Carolina, he is in great position on Super Tuesday because seven of the
fourteen states on Super Tuesday take place in the South and southern states
historically tend to vote for the candidate that represents on of their states. It is possible for Ted Cruz to win 9 of the
first 18 states, which would most likely help him secure the nomination,
especially if there are at least three/four candidates still competing on Super
Tuesday. The Cruz campaign is gaining momentum and is most likely the candidate
that can win over a portion of Trump supporters that are not the most loyal to
Trump because Cruz is also viewed as an outside to D.C. politics and is also
anti-establishment. Should Dr. Ben Carson drop out of the race early, most
likely much of his support will go over to Cruz.
3) Marco Rubio
Heavyweight donors, influential members of the Republican
Party (the “establishment”) are shifting their support to Rubio. He is young,
refreshing, and shares the story of the average American taking on student
loans and coming from a middle class family. His background and support does
show the stars aligning for a Rubio nomination, however, there are still
significant obstacles in his way, mainly a plurality of candidates still in the
race.
If the race were Rubio versus Trump or Rubio versus Cruz,
Marco Rubio wins the nomination. The problem is his base of supporters is split
amongst many candidates, including Jeb Bush who is also from Florida. Many Bush
supporters and donors have Rubio has their second choice, however, they are
loyal to the Bush family. They will most likely not switch their vote (which
could provide Rubio a boost of 5 to 10 percent more in support, which would be
critical in certain states) until Jeb Bush officially drops out. Thus the
nomination could come down to how long Jeb Bush stays in the race even though
Bush’s odds of winning are now slim to none.
Rubio’s other obstacle is performing well in early states.
Nationally, he is considered in third or fourth place, but in the early states
he is at least twenty points behind the frontrunner. Rubio must place at least third in Iowa and win New
Hampshire or be in a close second in order to have a clear path for the nomination as that boost could
help him do well in South Carolina and Nevada (where he does have family ties
in that state) to place himself in a great position for Super Tuesday. Unless he
pulls off a semi-miracle in New Hampshire or the field shirks to three or four
candidates after Iowa, Rubio faces challenges for the nomination despite a well
run and funded campaign with prominent supporters.
Jeb Bush
Not much should be said about Bush except that how poor his
campaign has performed despite raising the most money. His last name is a
liability, as voters do not want another political dynasty. His record in
Florida qualifies him as a great candidate, but there is zero momentum behind
Jeb! The two ways he can win are via a miracle in New Hampshire and then using
his money for Super Tuesday or if there is a broken convention where delegates
are split between Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush in a distant fourth where none
have a majority. After the first ballot, delegates are no longer bound to their
candidate and can vote for anyone. This would be the only slim chance Jeb has
for the nomination. The last brokered convention for Republicans was in 1948
where it went three ballots before choosing the front-runner Governor Thomas
Dewey who lost to FDR.
Democrats
1) Virtual Tie
Between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders
While this may come as a surprise, Bernie Sanders path
toward the nomination is becoming more realistic by the day. The polls are
tightening in Iowa and he will most likely win New Hampshire. If he wins both
Iowa and New Hampshire, he will be the favored candidate to win the nomination.
Hillary’s national support is falling faster in 2016 than
2008 as shown in the graph.
The email scandal, her trustworthiness, plus the FBI criminal investigation into the emails is now turning into a public corruption investigation where it appears donations to her non-profit Clinton Foundation by authoritarian regimes were given preferential treatment by Secretary Clinton’s State Department. This investigation is now very serious and Michael Bay’s 13 Hours movie about the Benghazi incident that was just released will not help her. Clinton’s campaign of simply stating, “vote for me because I’m a woman” is not resonating with all the voters, as they want more substance on the issues that are affecting Americans. Her “Mi Abuela” campaign effort to attract Hispanic voters has backfired when a massive social media movement occurred under the hashtags #NotMiAbuela and #NotMyAbuela. Clinton has also failed to go on the offensive against Bernie Sanders such as his horrible “rape fantasies” essay he claimed women enjoy the thought/imagining they are being raped. Instead, she just chooses to adopt most of his positions after he states them in a debate. Meanwhile, Sanders is able to attack her with regards to Wall Street reform and speaking fees she has accepted from Goldman Sachs.
Bernie Sanders has run a clear message about his socialist
policies and college students, the same base that gave Obama the nomination
against Clinton in 2008, love his message. Millennials (including Women
Millennials) support Sanders over Clinton. If other minority voters jump on to
the #FeelTheBern bandwagon, 2008 may be déjà vu for Clinton in 2016. Clinton
still has the lead for minority support though against Sanders. There are two main
factors in the race that can still secure Clinton the nomination.
The first is Southern states are voting early and Clinton is
much more likely to win those states on Super Tuesday because southerners do
not like the appeal of socialism Bernie Sanders is campaigning on and the
Clintons are from Arkansas. The second
reason is the likelihood of Sanders winning the nomination. Many Democrat
voters I’ve talked to (especially Millennials) like the message and are more
politically aligned with Sanders, however, they do not think he can win against
the Republican nominee. If Democrats are more concerned about winning in
November versus voting for who they like the most, then Clinton will win. If
Sanders can convince voters he is a movement similar to Obama, then Bernie will
have the edge. If Sanders wins Iowa, New Hampshire, and either Nevada or South
Carolina, it is most likely over for Hillary Clinton’s campaign.
